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Prudently focusing on the management of risk in investors’ retirement portfolios since 2001.

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If you’re looking for some guidance with your company’s retirement plan or your own personal plans for retirement, I can help.

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Although no one can relieve you of the responsibility for either your company’s retirement plan’s success or your own personal plans for retirement, simply having a plan and a trusted advisor can help you manage much of the stress, anxiety and worry involved.

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Outfoxing the Markets’ Hedgehogs

Pundits, commentators, economists and the like tend to be hedgehogs who, according to the philosopher Isaiah Berlin, view the world through the lens of a single defining idea. Because many are highly educated, well spoken, and come across as “really knowing their stuff,” hedgehogs get a fair amount of media exposure which can lend additional credence to what they say (whether correct or not). Their intellect, combined with their strong convictions and deeply-held beliefs, give hedgehogs the confidence to make bold predictions about the future because they believe they completely understand how the past led us to where we are today.

But what if historical – and thus, future – events are determined by nothing more than sheer luck? For example, as Daniel Kahnemann points out in his book Thinking Fast and Slow, it would be difficult to discuss the twentieth century without bringing up Hitler, Stalin, and Mao Zedong.

“But there was a moment in time, just before an egg was fertilized, when there was a fifty-fifty chance that the embryo that became Hitler could have been female,” Kahnemann wrote. “Compounding the three events, there was a probability of one-eighth of a twentieth century without any of the three great villains and it is impossible to argue that history would have been roughly the same in their absence. The fertilization of these three eggs had momentous consequences, and it makes a joke of the idea that long-term developments are predictable.”

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